Insight: The Housing Market September 2022

While the media in many quarters had been hyping up a housing market crash, what the latest housing market data reveals is that we’re nowhere near this. Indeed, the latest House Price Index from the Halifax has shown that house prices have risen once more, even though the rate of annual growth has slowed. Here we look at the picture across the UK and here in Kent.

The headline stats and facts

• Average selling price: £294,260 (up 0.4% on July figures which had shown a marginal drop).
• Property rice increases: Annual rate of growth eased to +11.5%
• Interest rates: 1.75%
• Inflation: 10.1%
• Kent stats: Kent property currently spends an average of 119 days on the market, compared to 164 days in September 2021. The number of properties for sale in Kent is 25% higher than a year previously. Average selling price in Kent over the last year is £410,089 compared to July’s figure of £401,287.
• Small drop in July house prices was offset with return to growth

What does this mean?

In August we’ve seen the price of the average UK property increase by 0.4%. While this is a marginal percentage, what’s interesting is that it offset the small drop we saw in house prices in July. The media had somewhat jumped on July’s drop as a sign of big falls of the horizon, but the latest data reveals that this isn’t the case.

However, it is important to note that the overall pace at which average house prices are rising is slowing down. Indeed, the annual growth reported in August was the lowest level we’ve seen in three months. With increasing interest rates and concerns about the cost of living crisis, there are no surprises here. As we had anticipated, things are cooling off.

So long as there remains more demand than supply in the housing market there seems little chance of a crash. The trouble is that the combined effect of a recession, the cost of living crisis and rising interest rates could choke off demand. Especially from first time buyers. A price crash in the housing market is unlikely unless there is a recession deep enough to create many forced sellers. Presently the jobs market is bouyant and therefore a crash isn't imminent.

On the ground, home buyers are taking a more cautious approach, especially against the backdrop of uncertain economic decisions at the government level. Greater stability in parliament should now help, although we expect the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates in the months to come.

What about Kent?

Kent reflects the UK state of play, showing resilience, but things are cooling here too. As Kim Kinnaird, Director at Halifax Mortgages has said, “With house price to income affordability already historically high, a more challenging period for house prices should be expected.” Bear in mind that Kent is in a particularly strong position for weathering this, given the exceptional growth witnessed in recent times.

House prices in Kent remain well above national averages and Kent continues to benefit from a relatively fast moving market. Sellers can enjoy relatively fast sale periods at an average of 119 days on the market compared with 164 days a year previously.

For buyers, there’s greater choice than there has been for quite some time. Indeed, the number of properties for sale in September 2022 is up a quarter from a year before. There is a good amount of choice for those looking to buy, even with the competition being driven by a continued popularity in Kent following the pandemic.

The changing landscape

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