Insight: The Housing Market October 2022

It’s been a month of political upheaval and uncertainty, with ripples of shock following the mini budget which was anything but mini. The resultant impact on interest rates is, of course, important to the housing market and what is likely to unfold. We aren’t – yet – in the territory of a housing marketing crash. All the while demand remains higher than supply, this will stay the case. However, we are likely at the ‘top’ and from the top, there’s always room for a fall.

So, let’s look at the latest data so that you can begin to see the picture that’s emerging, across the country and in Kent.

The headline stats and facts

• Average selling price: £293,835 ( down 0.1% on September’s figures)
• Property price increases: Annual rate of growth eased to +9.9% down from +11.5% last month.
• Interest rates: 2.25% (up 0.5% on last month, next review 3 Nov 2022)
• Inflation: 9.87% (down slightly from 10.1% last month)
• Kent stats: Kent property currently spends an average of 121 days on the market. There are 39% more properties for sale in Kent now compared to this time last year. Average selling price in Kent continues to rise and is now £411,909.
• New Buying Enquiries: RICS net balance score for new buying enquiries in September was -36% nationally and -20% in the South East. This is the 5th month in a row of falling enquiries confirming the downward trend.

What does this mean?

In September, we’ve had a seismic month for the housing market in terms of setting the scene for what is to come. We saw several days, on the back of the mini budget, of mortgage lenders pulling their fixed rate products before releasing new fixed rates hitting an average of 6.11%. This has happened in expectation of sizeable anticipated interest rate increases to come in the next few months. To give some context, the average fixed rate mortgage interest rate was 2.25% a year ago.

However, this situation is unlikely fully reflected in the latest Halifax House Price Index and we can expect notable changes in the reports to come.

As Kim Kinnaird, Director of Halifax Mortgages reported:
“Predicting what happens next means making sense of the many variable now at play, and the housing market has consistently defied expectations in recent times.”

It’s a case of weighing up how stamp duty cuts, a strong labour market and short supply impact against factors bringing downward pressure on house prices such as rising interest rate rises and inflation amidst the cost of living crisis. It's unlikely that the change in the stamp duty threshold will have any impact in an environment of rising interest rates. There’s also the massive wave of uncertainty that the unpredictability and chaos in the bond markets has on buyers who will now be more wary to make a move, especially as first time buyers, until things are more predictable and settled. There will be a time lag in how this uncertainty is felt as existing home movers will keep figures buoyant for October, and we won’t start to see notable change until November at the earliest.

What about Kent?

As expected, Kent broadly follows the wider UK picture . While the Kentish housing market has remained strong as a popular commuter area and a recipient of the London pandemic exodus, it won’t be insulated from the changes to come. House prices will remain well above national averages but will broadly follow any pattern exhibited in the national market.

Uncertainty ahead

Times of uncertainty are always difficult. We are always here to assist with your removals, whenever you need us. For a quote, please call 01622 672217.