Insight: The Housing Market May 2024

As shown in the latest Halifax House Price Index, the UK housing market is demonstrating much needed stability. This stability demonstrates resilience. This in turn is feeding through to buyer and seller confidence, with data revealing that confidence in the market is nudging upwards.

We need to dig more deeply into the data to understand what’s going on at ground-level. The regional picture varies, as does the behaviour amongst different groups, such as first time buyers. Here we look at the national and Kent local data to help you understand what is relevant to you.

The headline stats and facts

• Average selling price: £288,949 (up +0.1% making six months of small rises, except for the small dip last month).
• Property price increases: Annual rate of growth is +1.1%.
• Interest rates: 5.25% (unchanged since August 2023).
• Inflation: 3.228% (continuing to fall gradually).
• Kent stats: Kent property currently spends an average of 156 days on the market (up 9% on the same time last year), where the average length of time on market was 143 days. Following recent trends, we are seeing most properties coming to market being larger detached properties. The average selling price in Kent has dipped slightly, from £428,678 to £427,678. This is still higher than in March when prices were £427,344, showing that in reality, prices are steady.
• RICS net balance score: RICS data is very strong, showing that confidence is returning.  New instructions have a net balance reading of +13%, marking the fourth consecutive month of positivity. New buyer enquiries are sitting at +8%.

What does this mean?

What last month’s data shows is confidence is growing and resilience is evident. As Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgages, Halifax has said,

“While borrowing costs remain more expensive than a few years ago, homebuyers are gaining confidence from a period of relative stability. Activity and demand is improving, evidenced by greater numbers of mortgage applications so far this year, while at an industry level mortgage approvals have reached their highest point in 18 months.”

What’s also interesting is that buyer and seller expectations are adjusting. There are higher numbers of larger properties on the market. Additionally, first time buyers are pushing up prices of smaller properties. This is having the effect of closing the growth gap that we’ve seen between 1-2 bed properties and larger ones.

It still remains expected that Bank of England base rates will come down in 2024. This will then feed through to fixed rate mortgages and allow house prices to continue to rise modestly.

What about Kent?

Throughout 2024 to date, we’ve seen considerable regional variation in housing market data. Notably, regions such as Northern Ireland and the North West have driven the upward pressure on average house price growth. The South of England has generally experienced small declines in average house prices of around -1%. Within this, Kent has its own story with house prices largely remaining steady. Each month witnesses very little movement in prices. For example, in April there was a less than quarter percentage point drop in prices, whereas in March there was a rise of +0.3%. With such micro-fluctuations, it’s important to look at the longer term trend which is definitely one of stability.

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