Insight: The Housing Market January 2023

There are no surprises in the latest House Price Index from the Halifax, which reveals the price of an average UK home fell in December. However, it’s important to drill into the data while retaining a wider lens. While the data reveals the predicted falls, it also shows how figures remain historically high. For example, even with the predicted 8% fall in house prices predicted for 2023, this still means we will only reach April 2021 house prices.

The housing market had become enormously inflated post-pandemic, allowing plenty of buffer for decline with a still healthy outlook overall. Let’s take a closer look, both nationally and in Kent.

The headline stats and facts

• Average selling price: £281,272 (down 1.5% on December’s figures)
• Property price increases: Annual rate of growth fell again to 2.0%. (It was 11.5% as recently as September 2022, and was 4.7% in December).
• Interest rates: 3.5% (next review 2 Feb 2023)
• Inflation: 10.672% (a slight fall from December)
• Kent stats: Kent property currently spends an average of 141 days on the market, 19 days more than in November, but still 16% fewer days than this time last year. There are 77% more properties on the market than in January 2022. Average selling price in Kent continues to rise and is now £429,877.
• RICS net balance score: RICS reports New Buyer Enquiries are down for the seventh month in a row to a net balance -38%.

What does this mean?

The latest data reveals the easing in the housing market that was anticipated with the advent of recession. After a turbulent few months, economically and politically, it’s now possible to see the gradual decline in the housing market, after the plateauing over summer 2022, and the previous unsustainable growth.

However, it is extremely important to view current data in context.

First, the rate of growth post-pandemic was both intense and never sustainable. House prices are still 11% higher than at the start of 2021. In recent history, it may feel alarming that house prices are falling quite notably. However, looking with a wider lens of time, houses still increase in value considerably over time. The Halifax is celebrating 40 years of its House Price Index, revealing that house prices are up 974% since 1983!

When we look at Buy Association data, it’s clearer that we don’t need to worry. The average asking price of properties has risen by around 20% since December 2019 – 3 years ago. If you compare that with the three years before, we only saw growth of 3%. A healthy housing market needs sustainable growth.

Secondly, the wider national data doesn’t necessarily paint an accurate local picture, and that’s certainly true for Kent.

The adjustment and slowdown we are witnessing now makes sense and is sustainable, in the wider context. It’s important that home buyers and investors take a long-term view to buying property. We should expect continued short-term falls with a housing market characterised by limited supply and demand.

What about Kent?

Whether you are looking to buy or sell, it’s important to take the current climate into account. However, you should also recognise that there can be huge differences between areas and property types.

Interestingly, while the wider data of the House Price Index largely applies to Kent, the county has experienced an increase in average house prices. The average house price in Kent was £424,679 in December and it’s now up to £429,877. This is a 5% increase year-on-year. However, time on market is increasing, as we would expect with greater caution amongst buyers.

Your house move

We know that uncertainty in the housing market can add to the stress of moving house. We’re here to make moving day the stress-free part of the process. For a quote, please call 01622 672217.