Insight: The Housing Market February 2023

Stabilisation is the overriding theme of the Halifax's January House Price Index. After a few months of notable falls, following many months of intense price rises, the housing market stabilised last month. But, as expected, the rate of annual growth continues to slow. Additionally, there are also falls in the number of people seeking mortgages to finance house purchases, indicating that many are putting the brakes on their plans to move, likely due to broader economic uncertainty as the Cost of Living Crisis ploughs on.

However, there remains a good deal of promise in the housing market in 2023, and the January stabilisation hints at this. Indeed, interest rates are unlikely to reach previously anticipated highs, which may spur homebuyer confidence.

The headline stats and facts

• Average selling price: £281,684 (0.0% change on December’s figures)
• Property price increases: Annual rate of growth nearly stabilised at 1.9% (It was 2% last month, but was 11.5% as recently as September)
• Interest rates: 4% (next review 23 Mar 2023)
• Inflation: 10.528% (once more falling marginally from previous highs)
• Kent stats: Kent property currently spends an average of 145 days on the market. A year previously, it was 156 days. There are 80% more properties on the market than in February 2022. The average selling price in Kent continues to rise and is now £438,142, 1.9% higher than last month.
• RICS net balance score: RICS reports New Buyer Enquiries to reveal further weakening in house sales with a net balance -of 39%.

What does this mean?

After a few months of notable falls, the housing market has a welcome stabilisation period. While throughout most of 2022, we had grown familiar with month-on-month house price rises, the tail end of the year saw notable falls that reflected the wider panicking economy. However, January data reveals that things are somewhat stabilising, and while we anticipate further falls, it's not as likely that these will continue at the same previous intense speed. Additionally, while economists predict that interest rates will continue to rise during the first half of 2023, they are anticipated to peak lower than previously expected, with forecasters predicting they will reach 4.5% in the summer.

As we've said previously, context is essential for understanding housing market data. So while we expect falls and flattening, we must remember that house prices are still around 20% higher than they were just three years ago. For a sustainable market, we need this period of slowdown and stabilisation, and, as always, we recommend both buyers and sellers take a long-term view of trends.

What about Kent?

It’s important to look at national data, but buyers and sellers should also look at their local region. In Kent, we have seen slight increases in house prices of 1.9% over the last month. This is particularly marked when you compare it to stagnated London prices. Kent average properties also sell for considerably more. Time on the market continues to increase in Kent, but it's still not level with where it was just a year ago. As such, Kent buyers and sellers can take advantage of a slightly more buoyant housing market than elsewhere.

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