Insight: The Housing Market December 2022

Unsurprisingly, the latest House Price Index from the Halifax reveals the sharpest changes reflecting the most recent economic and political instability. December is always a time of reflection in the housing market, but this year it is a definite time of pause and readjustment while also revealing insight into how the market will continue to adjust in 2023.

Here we look at and explain the data that shows the current state of play in the housing market, both nationally and in Kent.

The headline stats and facts

• Average selling price: £285,579 (down sharply by 2.3% on November’s figures)
• Property price increases: Annual rate of growth fell sharply to 4.7% (it was 11.5% in September)
• Interest rates: 3.0% (next review 15 Dec 2022)
• Inflation: 11.052% (continuing to rise)
• Kent stats: Kent property currently spends an average of 127 days on the market, five days more than last month but 20% fewer days than this time last year. There are 69% more properties on the market than in December 2021. Average selling price in Kent continues to rise and is now £424,679.
• RICS net balance score: RICS reports New Buyer Enquiries are down for the sixth month in a row to a net balance -55% (was -36% in November).

What does this mean?

It was anticipated that the most recent data would reveal the caution and concern that the economic situation brings and that is what we can see.

The market slowdown that we have seen the start of was expected. It appears particularly sharp because of the extensive house price inflation witnessed since the start of the pandemic (+19% since March 2020).

It stands to reason that house buyers have exercised greater caution in the last month. Many are sitting tight whilst they wait for things to settle. This behaviour is common in December anyway. The market will stabilise, albeit at a different place to where it is today, and then homebuyers will feel more confident again.

Most importantly, the most recent data should be viewed within the context of the last few years. In recent times, we’ve seen huge house price increases which were never sustainable. Stabilisation, and indeed some falls, was inevitable as the market normalises. The phase of normalisation will last into 2023. We should expect the future months to be characterised by limited supply, increasing mortgage rates and wider adjustments to people’s personal finances due to cost of living changes and a more difficult labour market.

What about Kent?

A notable feature of the latest House Price Index is that the country is largely uniformly experiencing the same situation of falling house prices, except the North East. There’s some discrepancy between data sources and it looks as though Kent is slightly less affected than other regions, whilst broadly following a similar pattern. There is a wide cooling in the ‘race for space’ phenomenon which did encourage London buyers to Kent, but it remains highly likely that Kent will remain a popular commuter area for London especially as cost of living pressures continue. There is indication that it is taking longer for properties to sell and we can expect this to continue into the New Year.

Your house move

With the increased pressure on the housing market, it’s important that once your moving date is announced, you’re ready to go. We’re here to help with your removals, with responsive and reliable service. For a quote, please call 01622 672217.