Insight: The Housing Market August 2023

As anticipated, the most recent Halifax House Price Index reveals another fall in house prices. However, a wider look at the most recent data demonstrates the general resilience of the UK housing market. It’s important to view the four consecutive months of falls as what they really are: a gradual decline in prices, rather than a plummet. While the Halifax anticipates that declines will continue into 2024, they also see that the declines will be small, ensuring that the housing market remains buoyant overall with prices expected to remain considerably higher than their pre-Covid levels.

As always with the housing market, it’s imperative to take a long-term view. We had seen exceptional growth in a relatively short space of time and it is this growth that is providing a large cushion now declines are on the table.

Read on to learn more about the latest data for the UK and in Kent.

The headline stats and facts

• Average selling price: £285,044 (-0.3% monthly change)
• Property price increases: Annual rate of growth is -2.4%, the fourth decline in a row, but a smaller decline than last month’s 2.6%.
• Interest rates: 5.25% (up +0.25% on last month, which was up 0.5% on the month before).
• Inflation: 7.95% (down from over 10% in April).
• Kent stats: Kent property currently spends an average of 142 days on the market (up from 122 days a year previously). There are 62% more properties on the market than in August 2022. The average selling price in Kent has dipped slightly in line with national figures, to £442,845. This is still up 8% on a year previously and 15% higher than Kent house prices in 2020.
• RICS net balance score: New buyer enquiries demonstrate further declines in the months to come, with new buyer enquiries at -45%. Similarly, new instructions highlight the decline at -1%.

What does this mean?

There is no escaping the reality that the housing market is currently in decline. However, what’s most important to note is that the decline is gradual and steady, not knee-jerk and extreme. The large house price rises we have seen over recent years have provided a large cushioning factor to the recent drops, and will continue to do so for some time yet.

In essence, the figures show the market’s robust strength. As Kim Kinnaird, Director, Halifax Mortgages, says,

“In reality, prices are little changed over the last six months, with the typical property now costing £285,044, compared to £285,660 in February. The pace of annual decline also slowed to -2.4% in July, versus -2.6% in June. These figures add to the sense of a housing market which continues to display a degree of resilience in the face of tough economic headwinds.”

With interest rates continuing to edge upwards, borrowing costs are of concern to buyers. However, UK wage growth remains strong and inflation is now easing, so while affordability concerns remain very real, they are not a complete hindrance to the market. First time buyers are proving particular strong in their approach, while the buy-to-let market is showing greater signs of decline.

Predictions now indicate that there will be a “gradual rather than precipitous decline” into next year, but it is unlikely to undo the growth in house prices that we’ve seen in recent years.

What about Kent?

The South East is leading the trend for house price falls, with an annual fall of -3.9%. Nonetheless, the Kent market remains robust overall with house prices considerably higher than many other areas. The high levels of growth in recent years give the region considerable scope for falls without tangible losses. As such, opportunities abound for those looking to make a move.

Your house move

Moving home in an uncertain housing market is unsettling. We’re here to make moving day the stress-free part of the process. For a quote, please call 01622 672217.